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Estimated Population by State: 2000-2009

Charts 

Estimated Population: Michigan, 2000-2009 
Estimated Population: Michigan, 2000-2009 (magnified to accentuate change) 
Estimated Annual Population Change: Michigan, 2000-2009 
Estimated Rates of Net Domestic Migration: Michigan, 2000-2009 
Change in Michigan's Share of U.S. Population: 2000-2009 
National Trends in Domestic Migration Rates: 2000-2009 


Table

Estimated Population by State: 2000-2009 (Excel format) 

Estimated Population by State: 2000-2009 (pdf format) 

Additional tables for all states are available from the population estimates page of the U.S. Census Bureau website.

Highlights and Analysis  

Michigan had 9,969,727 residents in 2009 according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau on December 23, 2009, This represents an increase of 31,000 since the 2000 census but a decrease of 33,000 from 2008. Michigan remains the nation's eighth largest state. 

Despite continued population loss, the new figures contain welcome indications that some negative trends may be easing.

After five years of very small increases in population, Michigan has now had four years of similarly small decreases. Michigan's population decreased by 33 hundredths of one percent from 2008 to 2009, which is a small improvement from a decrease of 48 hundredths of one percent in the previous year. This deceleration of population loss is welcome after six consecutive years of decelerating growth or accelerating losses.
Chart: Estimated Population: Michigan, 2000-2009 
Chart: Estimated Population: Michigan, 2000-2009 (magnified to accentuate change) 
Chart: Estimated Annual Population Change: Michigan, 2000-2009 

Michigan's estimated rate of net migration to other states was 0.87 percent in 2009, which is a small improvement from 1.03 percent in 2008. This improvement is welcome after five consecutive years of increases. Nevertheless, Michigan continues to have the nation's highest rate of net domestic out-migration.
Chart: Estimated Rates of Net Domestic Migration: Michigan, 2000-2009 

Due to international immigration, long-term westward movement of the nation's population, and a resurgence of Sunbelt states, Michigan's share of the nation's population has decreased each year since 1970. The rates of decrease have been greatest during major recessions and smallest during periods of economic prosperity. The largest decreases occurred during the recession of the early 1980's and the second largest decreases occurred in 2007 and 2008. Substantial decreases also occurred during the recession of the mid-1970's. The estimated decrease in 2009 was not only smaller than the decreases from 1980 through 1983, but also smaller than the decreases in 2008, 2007, and 1975.
Chart: Change in Michigan's Share of U.S. Population: 1970-2009 

The favorable shifts noted above should not be interpreted as signs of economic recovery, since the new estimates are based upon data from a period of rapidly rising unemployment. Rather, they reflect the transition from a one-state recession to a national recession. Michigan's labor market did not improve during the period reflected in these estimates, but labor market conditions in most other states have no longer been favorable enough to attract as many residents from Michigan.  Most states gaining residents from other states are now gaining fewer than in previous years, and most states losing residents to other states are now losing fewer than in previous years.
 
Chart: National Trends in Domestic Migration Rates: 2000-2009 


Relative Magnitude of Population Loss 

Any level of population loss is a serious matter if it involves people leaving a state involuntarily for economic reasons. Population losses also have an adverse effect upon federal fund allocations and congressional representation. However, some valuable perspective can be gained by comparing Michigan's loss of 121,000 residents from 2005 through 2009 to other shifts in population that Michigan has experienced:

- Michigan gained 152,000 residents from 2000 through 2005. This was correctly interpreted at that time as a small increase. The subsequent decrease has been very similar in size.

- Michigan lost 219,000 residents from 1979 through 1983 despite having more births and fewer deaths than in recent years.

- An estimated 200,000 "snowbirds" who spend the largest part of the year in Michigan were inappropriately counted in other states instead by the 2000 Census. Thus, in terms of impact on funding levels and political representation, counting snowbirds incorrectly appears to  have an even greater adverse impact on Michigan than the population losses that have occurred over the past four years.


Updated December 23, 2009
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